Why Do Health Cost Sources Disagree?
They measure different things. Regulator approvals are averages of filed rates, KFF and Business Group on Health are employer surveys with different samples, Milliman measures total cost of care, and AHIP is an insurer trade association.
What each source measures
The spread in the chart is mostly a difference in what is being measured.
Regulator averages
Michigan’s 9.6 percent is an average of approved small-group rates, not a forecast of one group’s renewal.
Employer surveys
KFF defines small firms as 10 to 199 workers and Business Group on Health surveys large employers, so each sample answers a different question.
Cost of care and premium
Milliman measures total cost of care for a family of four and KFF measures premiums. A 7 percent rise in the total cost of care is not a 7 percent rise in your premium.
Which number to use for which question
Pick the source that matches the question you are asking.
Treat one view as one view
AHIP represents insurers and PhRMA disputes its premium-dollar breakdown, so treat any single breakdown as one view.
Start with the range
For a Michigan small group start with the approved average, then the carrier-level filings, then your own renewal.
How the page is kept current
These pages reflect sources published through November 2026, and we refresh them when new releases are published.
2027 market outlook questions.
Which source should a small Michigan employer trust most?
None alone. The approved Michigan average and carrier-level filings are closest to a small group, while national surveys show the direction of the market.
Are survey numbers or filed rates more accurate?
They answer different questions. Filed rates show what carriers asked for and regulators approved, while surveys show what employers report.
Why does my carrier’s number differ from all of them?
The carrier prices your group using its own claims, size, ages and plan, so the result can sit above or below any average.
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The renewal letter
Your current plan summary
Contribution split by tier
Enrolled counts by tier
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